Here is Part Two of our “10 Key Growth Indicators For Land Investment“. In the last article, we discussed Indicators 1-5. The Indicators we are discussing are present in areas that are ripe for long term investing in land, or land banking. We are applying these Indicators to the Antelope Valley in Los Angeles County, California, which is home to the two growing cities of Palmdale and Lancaster.
6. Close proximity to large Metropolis – Lancaster and Palmdale are located within the County of Los Angeles, the most populous county in California, and they are within 45 miles of the City of Los Angeles, the most populous city in California.
7. Existing and planned industry and commerce – The largest industry in the Antelope Valley is the aerospace industry and the largest single employer in the Valley is Edwards Air Force Base. Other important industries include retail, hospitality, heath care and social assistance, and local government. A Macy’s store has opened in the Antelope Valley Mall in Palmdale and several Walmart Superstores have already been built, with more planned.
The communities of the Antelope Valley are planning for a future of economic growth by attracting businesses to the surrounding area. The Antelope Valley Enterprise Zone covers approximately 61 square miles in Lancaster, Palmdale, and unincorporated Los Angeles County, and it provides several tax incentives for new and existing businesses. The Foreign Trade Zone includes sites in Palmdale and Mojave where international exporters and importers can receive reduced duty fees and labor costs.
8. Existing commercial and residential developments - Existing commercial and residential developments include numerous business parks, shopping centers, and planned communities in Lancaster and Palmdale.
9. Authoritative population projections and studies – There are two major sources for population projections and studies: the US Census Bureau and the Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance (GAVEA).
According to the US Census Bureau, the local communities of Antelope Valley had the following populations:
| 2007 Estimate | 2000 Census | 1990 Census | |
| Lancaster | 143,616 | 118,718 | 97,291 |
| Palmdale | 140,882 | 116,670 | 68,842 |
| Acton | 2390 | 1,471 | |
| California City | 13,757 | 8385 | 5,955 |
| Lake Los Angeles | 11,523 | 7,977 | |
| Littlerock | 1,402 | 1,320 | |
| Mojave | 3,836 | 3,763 | |
| Quartz Hill | 9,890 | 9,626 | |
| Rosamond | 14,349 | 7,430 |
According to GAVEA, the local communities of the Antelope Valley had the following populations and forecasted growth:
| 1990 Census | 2000 Census | 2000-2008 Estimated | 2008-2013 Projected | |
| Antelope Valley Region | 331,464 | 398,598 | 476,845 | 528,188 |
| 2010 Forecast | 2020 Forecast | 2030 Forecast | |
| Lancaster | 168,032 | 215,468 | 259,696 |
| Palmdale | 176,506 | 259,712 | 337,314 |
| Unincorporated-LA County | 95,965 | 133,725 | 167,319 |
| Greater California City/Mojave | 20,847 | 26,561 | 36,755 |
| Greater Ridgecrest | 34,917 | 37,653 | 39,803 |
| Greater Rosamond | 23,974 | 27,892 | 33,889 |
| Greater Tehachapi | 35,631 | 43,688 | 52,491 |
| Antelope Valley Region | 555,872 | 744,699 | 927,267 |
10. Master plan for community (streets, roads, sewer, electric and gas) – By state law, each city and county must adopt a general plan for the physical development of all lands under its jurisdiction. This plan will serve as the basis for planning land use, transportation routes, population growth and distribution, development, open space, resource preservation and utilization, air and water quality, noise impacts, safety issues and other related physical, social and economic development factors. Palmdale and Lancaster both have General Plans in place.
When you can find all ten of these indicators in an area, the area is likely to continue to grow, and land values are likely to increase substantially over time. The Antelope Valley has all of these ten indicators right now and is a great place to buy.
